Chinese Non-ferrous Metal Industry Faces New Challenges
Chinese Non-ferrous Metal Industry Faces New Challenges
  • 방정환
  • Date 2018.04.05 14:25
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China Non-ferrous Metal Industry Association(CNMIA) Antaike forecast that Chinese non-ferrous metal industry encounters new challenges given the new variables that are more subject to the supply conditions starting this year.

Antaike held the 2018 non-ferrous metal market conference on March in Beijing with 450 people attended, in which Antaike chairman said that the important problem of the Chinses society is the contradiction that is existing between the people’s growing demand for higher quality of livelihood and the economic development in inequality and insufficiency.

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Last year, Chinese non-ferrous metal production sustained stability, and the prices showed steady favorable trends while the producers wrapped up a huge profit amid the stable improvement in export and import as well, the speakers reported. Antaike pointed that the inventory cycling trajectory began to curve down in the U.S. China and Europe together while particularly Chinese manufacturing industries went into the downward trend from the third quarter last year.

They predicted that the Chinese copper import will reach only 3.0 million tons level this year after a three-year fall in a row. Last year China’s copper import registered 3,243,000 tons, but this year will see a 7.5 percent down amounting to 3.0 million tons, they presented. Meanwhile the report forecast China’s copper production will lead to 8.35 million tons this year, representing a 4.3 percent year on year growth, and therefore copper concentrate imports will reach 4.5 million tons, up 3.7 percent a year ago.

Antaike analyst Yao Xizhi presented that China’s aluminum consumption will reach 37.6 million tons this year, while aluminum exports will decrease 3.3 percent totaling 4.08 million tons due largely to the U.S. import restrictive measures. China’s aluminum production will rise 3.6 percent totaling 38.0 million tons this year, reflecting the new capacities of 2.7 million tons which will bring on stream this year.

Concerning the LME zinc prices trend, Antaike analyzed that it peaked to $3,500 in February, and China’s zinc prices picked up to 28,000 RMB for the high, in the same period, but fell since sharply during March, they added. The report pointed that the world’s zinc mining capacity will be possible to restore its usual production levels until 2020 when the tougher supply condition will be eased.

In respect of nickel, the tougher supply condition will significantly influence the world’s nickel prices this year, Antaike predicted. According to its presentation, the short supply reached 50,000 tons last year will be expanded to 130,000 tons range this year, pushing the prices volatility within $10,500 and 18,000 per ton range. But the short-term volatility will move around $13,000 per ton over May and June periods they forecast.

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